October 1, 2012
The exercise of articulating an investment thesis, as simple as it sounds, is a critical element of how we work. Starting to work on it early in the process of evaluating a company can be enormously productive in helping to focus our work on the most critical issues. And you’d be surprised by how many things seem exciting at first or second glance, but then fall apart when it comes to actually trying to construct a cogent thesis. If you’re interested in an opportunity but can’t crisply articulate why it might be important, there’s frequently a good reason for that.
We write these things down, share them internally, debate them actively, and refer back to them regularly. And every once in awhile, you make an investment and a thesis plays itself out more or less exactly how you imagined it would. Our investment in Savored, and Savored’s ultimate sale last week to Groupon, is a great example.
Here’s my original investment thesis for what was then called VillageVines, as I shared it with my partners in late 2010:
- Consumers have been thoroughly trained in concepts like daily deals, discount travel sites, etc.
- The restaurant business has a decades-long history of experimenting with online and offline deal and promotion companies, all of which were complex & inelegant in their implementation and user experience.
- Groupon, et al have opened eyes to restaurateurs re: a massive marketing opportunity, but failed to deliver a solution that works for their businesses. VillageVines model is consistent with my belief that there are opportunities to offer deeper, more consistent relationships for restaurants/retailers/service providers.
- Restaurants desire a steady channel through which they can move their daily quantity of perishable inventory – VV is a model with which restaurants build deep, lasting relationships (and even dependency on), and which they can control and tweak to suit their own needs.
- The user experience is clean, simple, and discrete, making it a more compelling value proposition for consumers.
- While not yet implemented, model will be brilliantly suited to spontaneous, mobile usage – should be a major growth opportunity
- This is truly a virtuous, everybody wins model – early restaurants report absolutely loving the service
- Viral growth to date in NYC has been very strong, despite only negligible marketing. The model is inherently well suited to a high degree of virality.
- Super-talented, energetic, highly analytic young founding team who will run through walls to make this win.
In this case, amazingly, it turns out that stuff all more or less proved out. Anti-Groupon vitriol grew steadily in the fine dining world, and Savored became viewed as something of a heroic antidote, leading to rapid growth of the restaurant partner community. The diner user experience got better and better and consumers loved it. Many restaurants became addicted to Savored’s ability to fill their tables.
Sometimes, as with Savored, a team is right enough that the business they set out to beat through competition becomes the logical place to end their entrepreneurial journey. In many ways, that’s as powerful a form of validation as you can find. At the same time, it tends to be particularly bittersweet.
And so it is with Savored. Ben and Dan set out to build for restaurants a genuine yield management solution that would be the perfect antidote to the unrealized promises of Groupon, LivingSocial, and others. Two years later, they’ve succeeded. And guess what…people noticed. Especially Groupon, who had struggled with restaurants while being desperately interested in developing ways to build more enduring, day-to-day relationships with their merchant partners (witness their purchase this summer of Breadcrumb POS in the restaurant space).
So this week, an investment thesis that hinged on a company positioning itself as a beneficiary of the macro trends that Groupon was leading, but which also was deliberately positioned as an alternative to the legions of Groupon-burned restaurateurs, becomes part of that same company.
Savored will continue to operate under its own brand, and I think Groupon will be very successful with this investment. Regardless what you might think about Groupon, those guys have an amazing sales machine, and unrivaled reach with consumers. Breadcrumb + Savored is a compelling two-pronged foray into restaurants, and a demonstration of just how serious these guys are about the business (if you need any more evidence of their commitment, just look at the fact that CEO Andrew Mason has been spending a night/week actually working in a high end restaurant to get a better understanding of the business!).
We wish Groupon the best with Savored. It’s been a great experience for us, and we’re proud of the work done by co-founders Ben McKean and Dan Leahy in building Savored. We were honored to be a part of it.
A bittersweet reality of my business business is the fact that the interesting & fun companies inevitably get bought, so our relationship with them ends. At least in this case I’ll be able to continue to be a very happy – and regularly satiated – customer.